Life after Kyogo: Celtic's Striker Dilemma
As Rennes FC prepare to announce the arrival of Celtic's recent goal scoring hero, we take a closer look into how Celtic's recruitment team will aim to replace him.
Before Kyogo Furuhashi’s arrival from Vissel Kobe in July 2021, not many people in Scotland had heard of him. The Postecoglou era was just beginning, and with the new Celtic manager bringing his expertise from the J League after winning the championship with Yokohama Marinos, he quickly secured the signing of a striker who would soon become a fan favorite among the Celtic support
A £3.5m transfer fee now seems a bargain given his return of 85 goals in three and a half seasons in Scotland. But it wasn’t just his goals that fans will remember, his intelligent movement off the ball, would wreak havoc for defenders he was up against. Also, his effectiveness in high block pressing made him the perfect choice to lead and control Celtic’s new high energy defensive strategy under Ange Postecoglou.
With his time at Celtic coming to an end following a reported £10m transfer to French Ligue 1 side Rennes, the club now faces the challenge of filling the void left in his position. They will be seeking a player capable of delivering a comparable level of goals and work rate.
In terms of depth at the striker position, Celtic have Adam Idah and Johnny Kenny as options for the central role. However, Idah has struggled for form recently and offers a different profile compared to Kyogo. Kenny, on the other hand, enjoyed an excellent loan spell with Shamrock Rovers in the League of Ireland but is likely to remain a developmental player for the rest of this season. Celtic are expected to seek a new striker who closely matches Kyogo's physical and technical attributes.
Where to look
In European football, market value of strikers can vary massively especially during the January transfer window. For our analysis, we look to home in on the Tier 1 leagues within Scandinavia, to see who the top performers are in this region. Historically, these leagues have provided clubs with excellent value on players due to low transfer and high resale fees.
To begin our search for Celtic’s next striker, we use the following filters to remove players who do not suit the requirements of the Scottish Champions.
These are:
Minutes Played - At least 1200 competitive minutes over a 12 month period.
Age - All players are not older than 27
Minutes on the field is an important measure as this will show consistency over the data we analyse. The age limit used is a target Celtic have used over many years, as they aim to bring a player in at the younger end of the scale, then sell for a profit in their prime years (25 - 30).
It is important to note that all data has been taken from Wyscout and is over a 12 month period within the last calendar year.
Initial Data Scouting
So lets get started!
This is Stage 1 of the scouting process.
The first metrics we analyse are a player’s goal tally and shot accuracy. These statistics provide insight into which players have been the most prolific in front of goal over the past 12 months
The top right box of this scatter plot shows all players who are above average goals and shots on target. For comparison, Kyogo Furuhashi was 52.08% for SoT and scored 16 goals.
There are a few interesting names showing in this analysis, firstly Orri Oskarsson had a fantastic season at FC Copenhagen and got a move to La Liga side Real Sociedad for a fee of €20m. Also, Benony Andresson recently moved to Stockport County in EFL League 1 earlier this month, after the 19 year olds free scoring season in the Icelandic Top Division, so this rules both these players as options in this window.
Most Celtic fans will spot Mathias Kvistgaarden who is currently linked to the club, he has been causing problems for many defenders and GK’s in Denmark. Kasper Høgh of Bodø/Glimt has had a solid season in the Norwegian Eliteserien and Icelandic forward Helgi Gudjonsson of Vikingur Reykjavik had has similar performances in the Besta Deildin.
These are the three players we will interrogate further.
To do this, firstly, we look at some of the other attributes a Celtic goal scoring striker would need, starting with 1 v 1 Dribbling.
As we can see from the above plot, both Høgh and Gudjonsson do not dribble in matches often and in Gudjonsson’s case, he struggles to beat his man. Interestingly, Kvistgaarden is one of the best performers in the region, often taking on a defender and beating him. It is worth noting, Kvistgaarden’s 1v1 dribbling ability is far better than Kyogo’s as the Japanese forward dribbles per 90 was 2.06 with a success rate of 49.12% - indicated by the orange square above.
Finally, we take a look at the player’s overall performances in Offensive Duels. This metric looks at both 1v1 dribbling and a players ability to retain possession when protecting the ball from an opponent.
Again, Kvistgaarden is the best performing player in the region for winning his offensive duels as shown above. Both Høgh and Gudjonsson and below average for both quantity and success rate when retaining possession.
Visual Scouting
Data will never full replace the visual part of scouting for me, as you need to scout a player’s attitude on the field, how they communicate with their team mates and how they react to pressure and adversity.
This is why the players who are performing well in the data above, move to Stage 2 of the process - visual scouting.
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Personal Information
Name: Mathias Kvistgaarden
Date of Birth: February 15, 2002
Nationality: Danish
Current Club: Brøndby IF
Position: Forward
Height: 1.73m (5’8”)
Strengths
Off-Ball Movement:
Kvistgaarden showcases exceptional game awareness, using intelligent runs to exploit gaps in the opposition’s defensive structures. His ability to read the game and position himself in high-impact areas on the field is instrumental to his scoring success.Pace and Agility:
He demonstrates blistering acceleration and remarkable agility, Kvistgaarden is a constant threat to defenders. His quick changes in direction and speed, which make him a valuable asset in fast-paced transitions and counter-attacking scenarios.Finishing Prowess:
Kvistgaarden is a composed and clinical finisher, evidenced by his tally of 13 goals in 20 appearances this season, including 10 in just 12 league starts. His precision in front of goal, particularly in clear-cut situations, highlights his reliability as a striker.Relentless Work Rate:
His relentless pressing and willingness to contribute off the ball align seamlessly with the demands of a high-intensity pressing strategy.
Areas for Development
Conversion of Difficult Chances:
Although Kvistgaarden excels at finishing clear-cut opportunities, refining his ability to capitalise on challenging or half-chances would elevate his goal-scoring threat and make him an even more complete striker.Enhancing Physical Presence:
At 1.73m, Kvistgaarden's stature presents challenges against physically dominant defenders. Building greater strength and improving his ability to hold off opponents would enhance his effectiveness in more physical leagues and aerial duels.
Kasper Høgh
Personal Information
Name: Kasper Høgh
Date of Birth: December 6, 2000
Nationality: Danish
Current Club: FK Bodø/Glimt
Position: Centre-Forward
Height: 1.86 m (6’1”)
Preferred Foot: Right
Strengths
Aerial Ability: Høgh's height and timing make him a formidable presence in aerial duels. He effectively utilises his stature to win headers, both defensively and offensively, posing a significant threat during set-pieces.
Finishing: Demonstrates composure in front of goal, capable of scoring with both feet and his head.
Positioning: Exhibits intelligent positioning, often finding space between defenders. This awareness allows him to capitalize on goal-scoring opportunities and contribute effectively to the team's attacking play.
Link-Up Play: Possesses the ability to hold up the ball and involve teammates, facilitating fluid attacking movements. His vision and passing accuracy aid in creating goal-scoring opportunities for others.
Areas for Development
Consistency: Høgh demonstrates potential, however, he needs to deliver better consistency at a high level in matches.
Pace: Enhancing his acceleration and top-end speed would increase his versatility, enabling him to break through defensive lines more effectively and become a greater threat in counter-attacking situations.
Defensive Contribution: Greater involvement in pressing and defensive work would add a dynamic dimension to his game, aligning with the modern expectation for forwards to actively support the team defensively.
This player may fail in initial UK work permit application but could possibly win on appeal given level played at for his club.
Helgi Gudjonsson
Personal Information
Name: Helgi Guðjónsson
Date of Birth: August 4, 1999
Nationality: Icelandic
Current Club: Víkingur Reykjavík
Position: Second Striker/Centre-Forward
Height: 1.80m (5’9”)
Preferred Foot: Both
Strengths
Technical Proficiency: Guðjónsson exhibits excellent ball control and dribbling abilities, allowing him to navigate through tight defenses and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
Ambidexterity: Comfortable using both feet, he can operate effectively on either flank or through the center, making him unpredictable and challenging for defenders to mark.
Vision and Creativity: His game intelligence enables him to deliver precise passes and make clever runs, often orchestrating offensive plays that lead to goal-scoring chances.
Work Rate: Guðjónsson is known for his relentless energy on the pitch, consistently pressing opponents and contributing defensively, which complements his offensive duties.
Areas for Development
Physicality: Enhancing his strength and physical presence could improve his ability to hold off defenders and maintain possession under pressure.
Aerial Ability: Improving his heading skills would add an additional dimension to his attacking threat, especially during set-piece situations.
Consistency: Delivering high-level performances consistently would increase his overall impact and value to the team.
This player may have an issue obtaining a UK work permit due to lack of games with national side.
Conclusion
From the Stage 2 visual scouting assessment, it is evident that Mathias Kvistgaarden stands out as the ideal candidate to succeed Kyogo Furuhashi at Celtic.
Høgh profiles as a player more akin to Celtic's current number 9, Adam Idah, while Gudjonsson's skillset aligns better with a No. 10 attacking midfielder role rather than that of a goal-scoring striker. As such, both players can be ruled out as viable options for this specific role.
It appears clear that Celtic's recruitment staff have identified Kvistgaarden as a priority target, given the club’s sustained links with a potential bid over the past year. However, securing the Danish striker will likely require a transfer package in the region of £11 million, as Brøndby are expected to resist selling him during this window.
Only time will reveal whether the mid-season sale of Kyogo was a calculated risk or a potential misstep by the club, especially given the limited depth in the center-forward position while Celtic remains active in three competitions. Alternatively, it could prove to be a masterstroke if the club successfully secures a younger, equally dynamic successor to the Japanese striker.